黄牛号贩子跑腿代挂号（18910288832）微信需要挂号联系客服（18910288832）各大医院服务项目！专家挂号，办理住院加快．检查加快，产科建档，指名医生挂号北京，上海，南京，天津．广州，各大医院代挂号

An employee works at a plant in Xiaoshan district of Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, on June 27. [Photo/Xinhua]

The year 2023 is set to be a critical turning point for China, not least because the country downgraded its level of COVID-19 management from the strict "Category A" to a much less strict "Category B", starting from Jan 8.

This implies most of the domestic and international COVID-19 restrictions have been removed and China has "re-opened" up to the world. The swift adjustment of the COVID-19 policy marked a resolute move toward renormalization, which is surely a catalyst for China's economic recovery in 2023.

Amid rising global recession risks and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, it has become more pressing for China to re-orient its macro policy toward its medium- to long-term economic and social development objectives. This year is also the "opening year" after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and we expect the country to implement the next decade's development plan as outlined in the 20th Party Congress report.

Good news for platform firms

After two years of regulatory upgrades and adjustments to platform enterprises, we (Greater China Macro Strategy) believe the regulatory environment will gradually stabilize from 2023 onward. Platform enterprises play the leading role in driving innovation and growth in the digital economy, with about 14 platform enterprises having largely completed adjustments to their financial service business. And once the residual adjustments are done, we believe platform enterprises would focus on business growth.

China's digital economy has been growing substantially in recent years, and digital transformation remains a powerful growth engine as China pursues innovation-driven quality upgrade of its economy in the next decade. The 20th Party Congress report put "Digital China initiative" as a key development target of the country's modern industrial system and pledged to accelerate the development of the digital economy in the next five to 10 years.

Assuming China's digital economy will grow at an average of 10 percent a year till 2025, we estimate it will be worth 66 trillion renminbi ($9.75 trillion) by the end of 2025 and its share of GDP will likely rise to 45 percent.

This year, the authorities are likely to give a number of regulatory approvals for capital financing and the permission for new investments by platform enterprises. We also expect fiscal and financing accommodation to platform enterprises regarding research and development investment, cross-border business and overseas expansion, administrative cost, and talent policies.

In 2022, credit events by property developers, mortgage defaults and the spillover to the financial sector were the main threats to China's financial stability. That's why China's policymakers have been announcing sweeping measures since late November to address the supply and demand sides' risks in the property market including:

* pledging policy accommodation to restore confidence in the property sector;

* providing comprehensive financing solutions to developers to help manage liquidity and liability risks, as well as to accelerate sector consolidation;

* and allowing for mortgage rate cuts by local authorities to boost property demand.

Financial stability risk management a priority

China is also expected to continue prioritizing financial stability risk management to resolve debt risks in 2023.

But property default risks will linger in 2023 considering the repayment of heavy debt. Developers that manage to secure funding may receive near term relief of liquidity, while those unable to take advantage of the latest financing support may default.

Also, regulatory easing of funding constraints is possible, and we see room for relaxation of the "three redlines" to broaden the regulatory easing of funding constraints, especially for the relatively weak developers.

Besides, more measures may be needed to drive a rebound in property demand. And while monetary policy accommodation, such as the lowering payment ratio, loan prime rate cuts and mortgage rate cuts, appear likely, fiscal policies will be geared toward providing public housing and rental housing, which may help absorb excess inventory in the commercial residential market.

Besides, successful completion of debt restructuring by defaulted developers will be positive to credit sentiment. Credit default risks remain concentrated with the relatively small and highly leveled privately-owned enterprises.

And as policymakers step up policy support to the property sector, local government financing vehicles' (LGFV) default risk would be controllable in 2023 for four reasons: first, growth recovery and property sector rebound in 2023 is positive to the cash flow outlook of LGFVs; second, fiscal stimulus in 2023 will alleviate funding requirement for LGFVs; third, LGFV debt swap into local government bonds (LGBs) can be considered to manage default risks; and fourth, monetary and fiscal policies can coordinate to defuse LGFV debt risks.

Achievements in green and sustainable finance